↔️Confidence interval

A range worked out from a sample by a method that, used again and again on fresh samples, would capture the true value a stated share of the time: 95 percent, usually.

The sentence I used to say, crossed out:

There is a 95 percent chance the true value is in this interval.

The true value is fixed. It is in there or it is not. The 95 percent describes the method, not this one interval. 📱 A confidence interval is not what you think fixed that for me after 🎓 Lecture 6 - Confidence intervals, which I started a week behind. The chapter in 📕 The Art of Statistics says the same, more patiently.

Origin: the term is Jerzy Neyman's, from the 1930s. Interval is Latin intervallum, the space between ramparts.

Why bother: 💎 An interval is more honest than a point.