🎲Judgment under Uncertainty - Heuristics and Biases

When people judge how likely something is, they do not calculate. They swap the hard question for an easy one: how much does this resemble the typical case, how easily do examples come to mind, what number did I start from. These shortcuts are fast and usually good enough. They also fail in predictable directions, and knowing the direction is what makes them correctable.

Where it showed up afterwards. The definition I keep is 🔤 Base rate, and Hale's arithmetic for it is in 🎓 Lecture 3 - Probability and base rates, three days after I read this. A stranger's one-minute version, 📱 Base rates in sixty seconds, has a better taxi example than the textbook. In April it became 📝 Issue 37 - Base rates for product people. The long form is 📕 Thinking, Fast and Slow, which I am reading at a pace the authors would have a name for.

• Set reading for the probability lectures in 00. Statistics for Product Decisions I Hub. Read in bed on Saturday 15 February, three days after the go or no-go, on a day when I did not climb and did not do much else.
• Eight pages. Two columns of small print and no wasted sentence. I have read whole books that say less.
• It is the paper Kahneman's 500-page book is the long version of, and I am on page 40 of the book. I should have started here.
• Jonas came back with pastries and did not ask questions. I read him the librarian problem and he got it wrong too, which helped.
• The date I gave for the launch is in here, under two of the three headings.